You will actually have to go and buy the Australian the table in question is not on line.
Basically it values the companies outside AUM on a market cap and per ton basis.
URL as I pointed out when I first liked this stock and did a post on SS it was 9.5 cents was for the very same sort of reason.
Now URL out of the lot of them
Tritton Copperco ANvil Matrix SMC Hillgrove ...
On a market cap per ton of copper is valued at 33% of its nearest rival ....
URL 53 per ton Tritton 364 CUO 836 ... wallies Anvil 685 Matrix 168 SMC 200 Hillgrove 176
Exco ... god knows but around CUO I suspect.
Notice how URL has been totally silent during all this ... Australian has a funny comment about one of the above coming out COPPER and CLONCURRY announcement last few days.
Market loves things specs ... URL in my eyes is not a spec ...w ell defined resource totally economic going to production end 2007 ... oh and its planned production is twice the rate of all those listed above ... TWICE ..
Absurdly underpriced in comparison ... even here let alone at my last tirades at 9.5 cents and 16 cents.
Of the other mentioned producers ... to add insult to things ... it has by far the largest deposit ... almost by 4 times and its questionable in my mind something 240k ton of copper is big enuf ... URL is 933k tons of copper.
Differenc eis I suppose they are producing ... we shall just sit on our hands for the full fesability end of this month ....
When I look at copper co with a puny resource base compared to URL ... these are the mob that tried taking over URL ... and see they are priced on a comparitive basis per ton of copper at 16 times URL ... one can see why I bothered to talk about this stock in the first place.
So why havn't we risen ? Well ... reading between the lines ... when I first alerted SS readers to URL 9.5 cents on the 21/2/06 ... and URL moving in the opposite direction to metals exploding ... namely copper ... its only with hindsight one knows why it went their in the first place .... and why this rise has been stopped.
First reason was a largeish placement at 10 cents in URL in january and I suspect why it briefly visted below it raised 3.4 mio or 34 mio shares so some hangover from that.
Why have we stopped here ... well a few reasons and I suspect very little to do with anything. The placement in January was taken up by one person mainly who picked up 16 million shares ... so in this spike ... we now see the guy taking 100% plus out ... how many he sold I dont know but I suspect a lot. So a lot caught up in the AUM hype and the overflow have to admit into URL was scary ... 16 cents to 28 cents in 2 days ... the fund manager just took it and left new holders long over 25.
Given my own view and despite this retreat ... the numbers and valuations speak for themselves ... so go and buy the Australian for a view outside my own.
What does it mean ... I suspect little if anything. To make 100% plus in 6 months virtually irresistable for a fund manager.
So how serious is the base in URL ... well they were scarbbling in January for money at 10 cents ... but 4 months later they did a converting note issue for 22 million or 6 times the Jan number with a conversion at 18 cents !! So one gets some idea of how serious the money is behind this.
This drop back ... ho hum .... part of AUM concerns ... part the substantial holder I suspect dumping into the rally and taking the money ....
Short term ... maybe lower but suspect not too much with a looming feasability study I think will have an NPV of 400 mio plus ... ususing current spot rate maybe 1.2 billion on the project and a market cap on the company of 50 mio.
Long term ... the copper is there .... finance I suspect in place if the feasability is 400 mio usuing say a low copper price of US$1.75 ... it will all be green light and if copper holds anywhere near here by the end of 2007 when they start ... try a P/E under 1.
If u like URL ...
I have another one that makes it look puny .... ignored by all ....
Will post next week on it ... but like URL at 9.5 and where I think we may see in a month with the feasability study ... this one I will write up ... totally ignored and probally rightly so for a long time but URL I think I mentioned the value of stuff in ground at 7 bill or so ... this new one ..... BIGGER.
Stay tuned ... not a ramp ... dont care what u think about URL and I am not selling till either it hits a lot higher ... or the feasability study says I am wrong ... since they already did one ... have defined the resource and upgraded the total ... unlikely.
Cheers Till next week
URL Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
