Below is my take on the half year result. I'll have used the P&L format from BAL's annual report. Obviously there are assumptions (explanation at bottom) but here goes:
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
0
Sales – Infant
136million
1
Non-Infant
19.3
2
Gross Sales
155.3
3
Less trading rebates (2.42%)
3.7
4
Revenue
151.6
5
Cost of Sales (67.41%)
102.10
6
Gross Profit
49.50
7
Less Distribution/Selling (5.25%)
7.9
8
Employee Costs (2.5%)
3.8
9
Marketing & Promotion (1.25%)
1.9
10
Administrative & Other (2.4%)
3.6
17.2
11
EBIT
32.3
12
Less interest
0.4
13
Profit before tax
31.9
14
Tax (30.1%)
9.6
15
NPAT (half year)
22.3
Infant sales based on A2 guidance of 68 million sales to end of December. I assume BAL, as market leader, stock out would be double A2 sales (conservative). Non-infant - took 15% from 2015 sales (19.75m) and growth was 170% from previous year. I assume 90% growth divided by 2. With cost of sales i took the trend line from 2014-2015 figures. Again was conservative. Two important factors are sales and cost of sales - will determine the bottom line. For example a 10% increase in sales would increase NPAT by 2 million.
So with the price increase and increase supply to kick in for 2nd half then annualised 2016 NPAT could be over 50million. Please DYOR.
BAL Price at posting:
$13.11 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held