FAR (ASX) An Ode to FAR.....

Originally posted by mandurah ↑

LTA

A brilliant dissertation, thanks for your time & effort in compiling that thoughtful & incisive
analysis.

The "poster" LTA is referring to is of course me ; Post 16760189.

LTA is critical of that post and with good reason. I felt hesitant in posting it in the first instance,
should have trusted my gut instinct & not proceeded with it. It was for my "entertainment" only
and should have remained in the private domain. This sort of analysis is not within my
area of "expertise" obviously. Perhaps the lag between official announcements and the paucity
of information released got the better of me and I stumbled down a path I had no right to
enter.

I did not however present the analysis as a fait accompli ;

I will attempt from my layman's perspective to put some "meat on the bones" as it were and try to
extrapolate somewhat from only 2 results from SNE2, however fraught with danger and inaccuracy, to put some numbers out there.

I will not go into the full technical detail here...one can read LTA's analysis other than to say, yes,
extrapolating as I have done is fraught with danger and inaccuracy as I stated above. I am well
aware of the formula R = {GRV x N/G X POR X Shc/FVF} x Er. The actual R {recoverable
reserves} will NEVER really be fully known until the field is technically "empty". One of course
can only go on best estimates based on known gross rock volume, porosity, oil saturation etc.
Yes, I have taken a giant leap in presuming that 1C 150mmboo & MEFS 200mmboo is confirmed
within the main structure, based entirely on anecdotal evidence. " Prolific & mature source rocks",
porosity of 24%, oil saturation of 74%, correlation of principal reservoir units between SNE1,2,
9000 bopd flow rate and "extrapolating" 5 wells @7000 bopd over 20 years in this main structure.
You yourself LTA stated that you believe on unconstrained flow rates it may well flow 20 000 bopd.
Fine & well & I take your point that it does not necessarily mean it will flow @7000 bopd over
20 years for that well & likewise for the other "4" wells presumed also.

Simply based on flow rate, "connectivity" between the 2 reservoirs and the information that is
known as regards por/sf etc I have naively attempted {based on my experience with some other
fields and their initial appraisal results v what they actually were able to produce down the track
with producers/injectors} what SNE MAY be able to "produce" under the main structure alone.
It is an opinion only {and a very flawed one at that}. If I happen to be right or close to the mark
it will be from pure luck and "educated" guess work only.

In short, I apologise if I have mislead anyone..it was certainly not my intention and never has
been since I have contributed to this forum. I applaud LTA for his detailed and concise criticism
of my previous post.

Expand

Hey Mandurah

No need to sound like you are apologising for everything in your post, there were a lot of extra arguments within it that made perfect sense (to me anyway).

And it is not as if LTA's post (detailed and erudite as it is) is not without its own problems as I indicated above.

pj

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Last 48.5¢		Change -0.010(2.02%)		Mkt cap ! $44.81M

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