California Weather

With the Californian almond-blossom season only about two weeks away, I think it may be wise to keep an eye of the impact of the El Nino in California over the next few weeks.

As has been noted in some posts previuosly, durring the last major El Nino event in '98, the incessant pounding of rain disrupted the pollination of almond trees that year, thereby leading to a substantial drop in the size of the 1998 harvest.

This article from the LA Times earlier this week suggests that there may be some major storms hitting California by the end of this month:

....One reason why storms haven't been able to get through to Southern California in recent weeks is an area of high pressure southwest of the state that has been unusually persistent, Stanford University climate scientist Daniel Swain said.

Although the forecast does not show any signs of major storms in the next week in the Southland, there appears to be a window of opportunity for significant precipitation to return shortly after that, Swain said.
Computer models suggest that there will be a burst of energy in the jet stream later in January.
The pattern suggests that "if there are any storms in the pipeline at the end of January, they will be able to both have a trajectory that might bring them into Southern California and it might allow them to maintain their strength," Swain said.
The same article quotes a NASA weather expert, Bill Patzert. Intriguingly he seems to be convinced that although the El Nino will soak California over the next few months, the state will be back in drought before the year is out:
..... "As we look back, the big show is usually in February, March — even into April and May," Patzert said. "So, in many ways, this is on schedule."
..... Patzert expects California's drought to continue into a fifth year even after this El Niño winter, saying that these events come only every 15 to 20 years, providing just 7% of our water over a generation.
"In February and March, we might be talking about mudslides. But in July or August, we're going to be talking about the drought again," Patzert said.
If this forecast plays out as he states, it is not hard to imagine that this combination of climate extremes could cause some headaches for almond growers in California.