Perhaps a long shot, but keen to see thoughts around ASX200 ingestion in March.
The criteria and maintenance is as follows;
Selection Criteria
A security must be listed on the ASX and be an ordinary or preferred equity stock (e.g. no bonds or warrants etc.). Its average daily market capitalisation for the previous six months must be considered institutionally investable and meet a minimum benchmark size. Liquidity must be adequate and its public float (shares not owned by company founders, directors, government agencies etc.) must also meet a minimum requirement.
Note: The above criteria are for inclusion into the index and not for continued membership. As low index turnover is important, a security in the index may on occasions violate one or more of the selection criteria without being removed.
Index Maintenance
Regular maintenance of the S&P/ASX 200 is required to accurately reflect changes in its constituent’s market capitalisation and liquidity.
Quarterly Rebalancing
Changes are implemented on the third Friday of March, June, September and December. Two weeks notice is given on impending changes.
Intra-Quarterly Additions
Generally only occur when there is a vacancy in the index due to a deletion. Two to five business days notice is given.
Intra-Quarterly Deletions
Generally only occur due to mergers, acquisitions and suspensions. Two to five business days notice is given.
Index Maintenance
The All Ordinaries index is rebalanced once a year, on the third Friday of March. Two weeks notice is given to the market with the rebalance announcement being made on the first Friday of March.
Unlike all other S&P/ASX indices (with the exception of the S&P/ASX 300), if a company is removed from the All Ordinaries (due to corporate action etc.) a replacement is not added until the next rebalance.
With our current market cap of $273M, and given the bottom end of the ASX200 is as follows;
View attachment 137655
After comparing the ASX200 and the ~210th spot on the ASX300 (some of which will transition up with the above dropping down), I would assume that the company would need to be around a Market Cap of $480M + by the first Friday in March, i.e March the 4th.
So 7.4 cents for $274M, to in my opinion entry - we would need to be beyond $480M a 75% improvement in yesterday's close, or a strike price of 13 cents.
With Oil seemingly starting to looking to recover and OPEC etc looking to negotiate a deal early Feb, furthermore with a juicy line up of catalysts including an apparent rerate of SNE including perhaps commerciality in coming weeks, I don't think it is out of the question that we could finally make the ASX200 this year.
Surely with potential doubling of SNE, coupled with commerciality and the SNEball effect on reducing the COS of surrounding prospects - you would have to think that beyond 13 cents would be probably in a recovering Oil market...
If not March, then I would expect June should be a shoe-in - although then I am starting to grapple with my own predictions that potential offers would be on the table by this date. Only time will tell I guess.
GLTAH, IMHO.
(20min delay)