Junior Oil Trust (Jan) / Tag Analyst Report

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http://www.junioroils.com/wp-content/uploads/Junior_Oils_FactSheet_201512_update.pdf


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http://www.tagoil.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/TAG-Analyst-Report_7-Key-Factors-online_1-28-16.pdf

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The market’s risk appetite has also changed

In December 2011, Cobalt Energy (CIE US) signed the production-sharing contract (PSC) for Block 20 offshore Angola and stated that the Cameia-1 well in the neighboring block “confirmed the existence of hydrocarbons.” In the next two months, the share price doubled, delivering a $4 billion-plus appreciation in market capitalization. It then tripled in value, as the company successfully tested the Cameia-1 well offshore Angola. The well was targeting 1 billion barrels (Cobalt’s working interest is 40%) prior to drilling. Today, the Cameia development is estimated to contain 300-500 million barrels. Start-up is scheduled for 2018, and Cobalt Energy’s market capitalization is $1.95 billion at the time of writing. Compare Cobalt’s case with the recent case of Cairn Energy (CNE LN), which made two discoveries in Senegal, one of which the company claims “is potentially the largest global oil discovery in 2014.” On the day of the first announcement in October 2014, the share price rose a mere 2%, and it has been drifting lower since.
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