For mind, this has most likely been settled already, as RB has alluded to, through our risk reward agreement made mid last year.
If it's still up for negotiation, I'm for a 4-5 combination, it has to reflect the effort and the value that AMG brings to the POC device and I would expect it to reflect the following in either case.
For the upfront payment, I'd expect a minimum of them covering our costs plus a bonus payment. The bonus payment would increase dependent on how many relevant applications AMG becomes involved in.
The royalty, if AMG is required to make the device and sensor work, it's a minimum 5% starting point. I would then have a performance sliding scale for the value created. If the device is truly disruptive, I would expect our royalty to increase upto a high of 10% on this scale. To achieve 10% we would be required to capture 15% of the $27.5B POC market. So for every $825m of market we create, we go up another 1%. At $825m @ 6% = $49.5m to us. At 15% of the market = $4.125B @ 10% royalty = $412.5m.
If AMG isn't required to make the device and sensor work, then I would expect, 2-6% depending on what AMG brings to the table.
Some big numbers to digest and it really depends on how much we disrupt the market. I certainly think a 15% market share is achievable once they start developing multiple tests.
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