reserve upgrade or downgrade, page-9

Jojo,

I don't expect a reserves upgrade, and I don't expect any future HDR performance to catch up with PSA or ROC, both of which I hold, and have nearly doubled since I started buying HDR again. Nor do I trust SP, after attending the AGM, and listening to his smooth promises, followed by consistent non-delivery.

However, surely the market has already subtracted much more than any potential 30% Chinq reserves downgrade, even if you ignore that oil has meanwhile gone up at least 10% (incl lt outlook IMHO), and also Uganda has been greatly upgraded. HDR performance on Uganda has been good IMHO.

If I trusted SP, HDR would be an unqualified BUY in my mind. Now I have to grapple with whether it is dishonesty, inability to deliver, or frustrations beyond his control (eg WPL & potential Guyane farminees). To buy (or continue to hold) a share in which I do not trust mgmt is both against my instincts and contrary to past bitter experiences. Nevertheless I continue to hold peak quantities. Buy more????

I am inclined to say near bottom, but probably a lot offloading on every small rise. PSA turnaround may be quicker. Hold and review as news unfolds? as can't get much worse??

I think I may have misjudged SP.

Entropylord