Middle east oil geopolitics

Originally posted by eshmun ↑

Thought I'd start a thread dedicated to discussing middle east geopolitics news as that's potentially were the big bounce in the oil price might come from.

I'd missed this news from 16 December last year. Turkey is planning to set up a military base in Qatar.

http://news.yahoo.com/turkey-set-qatar-military-face-common-enemies-101209790.html

"The envoy, Ahmet Demirok, told Reuters that three thousand ground troops would be stationed at the base - Turkey's first overseas military installation in the Middle East - as well as air and naval units, military trainers and special operations forces."

In my opinion the Russian strategy is very deliberate. Help expand Iran's influence over the area so the Saudis have the choice between the carrot and the stick. I've said this all along since I broke the news of the Russians in Syria to these forums two weeks before the pentagon declared it official. There is no ball licking on the part of Russia in this game in my opinion. The course of geopolitics in the middle east is now set and involves the use of force and big displays of force. The Saudis are the ones bleeding from there war in Yemen and actions in Syria.

And this just from yesterday.

Al Qaeda militants seize southern Yemeni town.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/al-qaeda-militants-seize-southern-yemeni-town---residents/41931520

And the most important bit I've read recently is from Vice News.

"Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced a trip in early February to the United Arab Emirates and Oman. Lavrov plans to discuss "the urgent task of reducing volatility and ensuring fair prices for hydrocarbons, and achieving a sustainable balance between supply and demand," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova told a briefing in Moscow on Friday."

https://news.vice.com/article/russi...alliance-to-boost-oil-prices-thats-not-likely

The Russians have been tightening the screws slowly on the Saudis just as they have done over eastern Ukraine. Supporting Assad, supporting Iranian influence in the region and the proxy wars which could end the Saudi Kingdom should they last for any extended period of time. If they are smart they will wait until the bulk of the loss making US shale producers fall into bankruptcy before they announce the news of a joint cut to oil production with the Saudis. Around the same time I'd expect that Russia will play a pivotal role in bedding down a cease fire in Yemen. Eshmun

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Just to give an idea (if that link I put up is correct) and Al Qaeda have retaken Azzan that's just more headaches for the Saudi coalition.

Below is a Google image showing the location of Azzan and the port of Al Mukalla that the article says that Al Qaeda control and an image from the Washington Post showing the oil producing area of Marib (and pipeline) and the areas of Houthi control in mid 2014 before taking control of the capital in Sept 2014.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_takeover_in_Yemen

According to ExxonMobil's website they own interests in the Marib and Jannah blocks which produce on average 195,000 b/d and "the fields produce to a central oil production unit, then through a pipeline to Salif on the Red Sea, where a 3MB FSO holds it for export. Loading is from Ras Isa Marine Terminal, operated by Yemen Hunt Oil Company."

http://www.exxonmobil.com/crudeoil/about_crudes_marib.aspx

Yemen is very messy for the Saudis, the UK and the US as you can see. Trying to defend Marib and Salif will ultimately prove futile in my opinion whilst the Russians remain in Syria backstopping Iranian power and creating power vacuums for groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS. Well that's the way I read it at least.

Eshmun