Sarg,
I don't see why market is so negative towards commodities. Look at zinc and lead, warehouse level is at 12 years low, large zinc mines closed (late last year) due to run out of zinc. Zinc prices gone from US60c/lb to $77c/lb. Lead also rocketed. In my very honest prediction, zinc and lead combined price will reach US$2/lb or higher.
Copper has recovered from US$1.90/lb to $2.11/lb. All 3 commodities broken through 1 year downtrend. Gold is on bull run. Aus dollar is low vs US dollar, so big advantage for Aussie miners.
Only iron ore, oil, nickel and coal are dead in the water. Iron ore collapsed is self-created due to BHP, RIO's flooding technique to destroy high cost miners in China. Chinese produces 1500 mtpa (Australia 660 mtpa) of iron ore and they are high cost. Aussie miners want their (Chinese) market share (almost 3 times size of Australia). They have their eyes on bigger pie.
Oil is due to war between OPEC and US shale companies. US share companies are created because oil stayed above $100/b and high cost shale can start to operate. OPEC is very angry and ant market share back.
Same as with nickel. In 2011 or even earlier before GFC, nickel rocketed to $11/lb and many companies start to mine low grade nickel mines (eg MBN 0.5% nickel). This flooded the market.
Best time to buy is when market is negative, but you must pick the best stock with high grades, low management fees, multi-commodities, low sovereign risk country etc. Negative emotion will make people make irrational and often bad decisions.
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