Aqua
All within the realms of possibility. But for a long time now I have been using Chinguetti as a comparison. Initial estimates were 120mbbls and it had an area of 12.5 sq km and a similar net pay. I have also used a smaller area than your 15 x 15 km to account for the thinner sands ... so 15 x 10 km max = 150 sq km. Round down to accout for any other unknowns like connectivity to 125 sq km = 10 times Chinguetti. Round down again for a lower oil price and we have something between say 700 mbbls and 1,200 mbbls.
So much not known though as yet so all conjecture. Just going by Cath's "enthusiasm" to date you would be hopeful of the 700mbbls but that will require SNE-4 (Bel-1 deepening) I reckon.
H
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