Hey Mossums,
You could be completely right with your estimates so you won't be crucified by me, your guess would be a lot better than mine and we won't really know until we get some finality around the contract. What disappoints me is that Mr Marino announced back in July last year that he would make an announcement about the contract in 3 weeks, so here we are nearly 7 months later without any detail. Perhaps an eager new CEO getting ahead of himself.
Having said that however while yes the locally made HSV and QHL's relatively small part in it with its contribution allegedly confined to parts in the engine bay, will more than likely be a smaller contract, what I like about it is it's another foray into a new market with new revenue streams and as such, de-risks QHL's reliance on its current military contracts. I'm sure for instance QHL's winning of the Hawkei contract contributed to their success in securing the engine bay contract with Holden. The more experience they get and associated reputational ticks they'll ultimately receive, the more contracts they'll be asked to tender for.
The other thing with Holden is we'll continue to import these cars as rebadged chevrolet's, so imagine as a result of what will be done locally with the HSV, it wouldn't be drawing a long bow IMHO to suggest there's no reason QHL can't continue to build these parts for the yanks from the new Waurn Ponds set up. Another export opportunity.
So yes more than likely not a big earner but potentially another step in building our motor capability.
Cheers...
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