This seems to be the season for more quiet investors to come out from the sidelines to have a say. So my 2 cents worth....
Ive been on both the buy and sell side, professionally, of the market for 25+years and nothing unusual is happening. The theories of 'cappers' are, frankly, ludicrous and totally unfounded. The SP is not being 'manipulated' at all. Its just simple and very predicable decay of investor interest that occurs with missed deadlines and a reducing balance sheet. In this environment you get more selling pressure than bids. Simples. No dark shadowy cappers armed with NASA algorithms and a masochistic desire to 'suppress' a share price for 2 years. "Cappers accumulating"...that's actually an oxymoron if you have logic. Nup...its just simply tired holders capitulating. Everyone has their breaking point in the investor waiting room of patience. And lets be honest here....while I too believe in the great value of SUDA's business....it has been a stretch of even my patience.
I had a meeting with them last month...and it was a 'frank and wide' discussion, if you know what I mean. I looked them in the eyes and asked them to quote their own credibility rating...they were nearly honest and admitted they had jumped the expectation gun way too early on many of the talks. They hadn't lined up their discussion/research/validation/action/negotiation processes at all. To go into such meetings with global pharma expecting an indicative term sheet in a few months, is just plain naïve. To be fair, they don't have the experience of negotiating with big pharma. We all knew this. So to expect a short, bumpless path to commercialisation is also naive on our parts. Eh?
Re Westcoast: it has been unofficially for sale for 20 months, but no takers. But then again, Ive never had a good impression that they were committed sellers. Westcoast obviously hasn't succeeded and is actually a bit of a cash drain. I'd be happy if they got $3-4m for it but I really don't expect this to occur within the next few months.
I was, like before, assured that some deals would occur by/in 2Q CY16. I wont go into any specifics but frankly, if they don't, I and some other HNWs I know will likely capitulate before the probable CR. This is not news to them...they know they must deliver and deliver soon.
I really like their products, it is easy to conclude that each could be worth $00s millions; a great punt. But cr*p, they are testing my patience!
Cheers,
SUD Price at posting:
2.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)