Some figures on large selling

In order to figure out when the large selling will stop I've looked at past figures from the top-20 updates, magellan substantial holder announcements, etc and since 1st Feb from stocknessmonter each day

All my workings  are here and updated each day from stocknessmoster


From these figures:
There is a continual pattern where many days there's a large sell (around 400,000) into a buy line - this can be seen if you look at stocknessmonster trades each day and this is likely to be one or two of the big holders selling aggressively.

The conclusions from my spreadsheet above is:

1. The heavy selling from large holders averages around 400,000 shares per day

2. If its mainly the two HSBC funds continuing to sell aggressively then they will have sold all their shares in the next 8 or so trading days. So in this case might see selling pressure easing towards end of this month.

3. If CS Fourth Nominees are also selling aggressively then both HSBC and CS Fourth will have sold out their shares within 23 trading days (mid-end March)

4. If Magellan are also selling aggressively then it will take another 78 trading days (3-4 months) - although their selling has not been as aggressive in the past.

Let's hope Magellan doesn't want to get rid of their shares asap and that its only 2-3 of the big funds in which case things could start improving significantly in March.

I'll update the attached spreadsheet daily and also when the top-20 list is updated.