Vax Impact???, page-100

Agree that it won’t be long till we can achieve greatness and this is a very achievable outcome.
Extrapolating those figures comparing to COH, 100m profit is 55% of 180m profit, so 55% of SP of $100 = SP of $55.00. Again, a (theoretical) potential outcome (which I can live with quite nicely).
A few points of interest.
The STS database reports Aortic and or Mitral valve replacements (presumable in the USA) at 36000 replacements in 2005 increasing to 59000 in 2013, with the annual growth of 4% for the last 3 years. Project that rate of increase over the next 3 years (basically to now) and the rate of valve replacements is 69000 procedures per year for 2016, and ? 80000 procedures in 2020.
When the Malga facility opened in 2014, annual rates of product production were discussed, with 20 000 patches per year to start, building up to 100 000 patches per year within 5 years (projection of this occurring in 2019).
The aortic valve trial should have completed recruitment by 2016, with long term follow up (two years) by end of 2018, with published results not too far away.
2016 should see the introduction of a trial of patches for vascular use.
Valve repair is preferred to replacement, but the absence of a suitable replacement material has been a barrier. Not anymore.
FF 3-4 years. IF all the planets line up, the manufacturing capacity of the Malga plant will be 100 000 patches per year – enough to supply all the valve repairs in the us that are performed in preference to replacement (because the results of the current study prove it to be a superior approach). Being completely aware that all valve jobs cannot be repaired and replacement inevitable, the CHD repairs across the world, with the valve repairs across Europe and Asia and god knows where else, and the vascular uses and other potential uses (dura patches for example) and selling 100 000 patches per year for a profit of $100m could be a bit of an understatement.
Current rate of centre uptake is 10% per month – which if sustained, 2000 centres could be reached by April 2018. And if the rate of patch use achieves 4 patches per month (one a week, and a month each year off for holidays), 100 000 patches per annum will be needed at this stage. This rate of growth may not be achievable with cardiac centres alone, but vascular and general facilities for other uses will definitely contribute to centre growth – so much that the demand may outstrip supply sooner than is anticipated.
Been here for nearly 3 years since the days of 0.02c(0.20c)……..with the belief that CC and the ADAPT technology will be a game changer big time. I can wait 3-4 years to get filthy(ish) comfortably well off.
And that doesn’t include and impact from the vax/vax’s!
Still believe……..”gonna need a bigger boat”