PEN (ASX) what is happening with PEN ??

Originally posted by blue_horse_shoe_999 ↑

I contemplated this over my Saturday morning coffee and acai bowl, and offer the following observations. In summary, I'm not concerned. But, would love to hear the thoughts of Gav and Co too.

Retail Selling
We are being sold down on relatively small volumes. From what I can see none of the major holders are selling.

Profit Taking
I can understand some retailers taking profits at $0.90-$1.20. The capital raise at $0.80 will have delivered one of the best returns in many portfolios. Circa 25%.

With the rest of the market capitulating I can imagine there would be a few margin calls out there. Also, I'm sure there would be investors cashing in their cap raise profits to bargain hunt when the index is at 4,800.

Index Inclusion
Remember last year when little PEN was included in the all ords index? At the time the index was flying high well above 5,500 from memory. Index fund managers will have had to have done a lot of re-weighting since then, including selling down PEN due to poor performance of other stocks in the index. We have a higher Beta now and we have moved more online with the broader market.

Fundamentals Unchanged
As far as I can tell our fundamentals havnt changed and we are in a substantially more de-risked position than when we spiked last year.

Manipulation
I know there are nay sayers out there, but I still believe SP manipulation is happening. As HS and OzPb have pointed out, there are some dealings out there.

Another Cap Raise
Maybe... I hope not. We have the debt facility ready to go and will now have quarterly revenue from at least one contract.

Summary
Happy to have the opportunity to average down this past two weeks. Think about this, most of us were happy to buy at 2cents in the cap raise to fund construction, with all its risks etc. Construction has successfully completed and we still have the opp to buy at 2 cents.

If the share price hadn't spiked upto $1.30+ I doubt we would have so many worried holders. If we just tracked side ways and stayed at $0.80 while the rest of the market slid 20%, I think we'd all be reasonably ok with that.

I also think there could be one last final shake of the tree before the ADRs list. Strong hands will prevail.

However, I do agree with Zub that the register is now so tightly held, it is going to be tough for the SP to climb strongly.

Chins up everyone.

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Agree mostly. As flagged a few weeks ago I've been buying in the low 80s, high 70s. Wasn't sure how low it would go, but expected some sort of capitulation move. Hopefully I timed it well and we're past the worst of it.

Manipulation

More than just nay saying, my argument is that it serves no practical purpose to believe it. It definitely didn't help HS/MG read where the stock was going. It'd be just as useful to blame it on the illuminati or the fairies at the bottom of the garden.

It's just a crutch that serves to help people avoid looking at their own errors of judgement. The unstated part of it is that "we got everything correct, but the bastards are trying to trick us". I'd guess 80-90% of the supposed "manipulation" could be more accurately described as simply "selling". Selling due to company delays, failure to convert PENOC, world markets tanking, Uranium renaissance not happening, and too much ramping back in Oct leading to an overhang of suckers who now need to wash out of the stock (I suspect/hope that they now mostly have).

Small Free Float

It's pretty twisted logic to suggest that a small free float is bad. I wasn't convinced at all by Zub's argument that there aren't enough fools. I'm confident that more fools will be found! We won't be hitting peak fool any time soon.

Have you got a better reason to believe that a small free float is bad? The only negative I'm aware of is that it can magnify swings in both directions, which is probably contributing to the magnitude of the sell off now.