Wilsde,
Here is a better representation of my workings as well as net to FAR / a risk weighting and I think this is all I can do for now. I have sent an email to Cath asking a few questions around the 'new green section' though I don't expect she can say much.
My last effort for today;
Here is all of the workings etc here
It looks like more than double the size Kosmos had of Jubilee to FAR from Senegal;
Assumes
1. We can stay in the game and excludes dilution. Too hard to factor in light of potential for debt funding, more likely T/O.
2. Excludes gas cap conversion to BBOE
3. Excludes any assets ex Senegal.
4. An averaged risk weighting of 32% across our Senegelese assets. (if I spent more time, could break it down by asset / COS, maybe next time).
5. The areal extents are representative of the overall field sizes.
6. Porosity, recoverability, saturation and shrinkage are constant across the areal extent of the fields.
7. That the FAN's have similar porosity, recoverability, saturation and shrinkage to SNE. (obviously incorrect).
8. That my Jubilee calcs are accurate, I spent hours on this alone. Loads of contradictory information on the Web.
9. 29M net pay across each of the FAN's, excludes the new fatter green section as impossible to understand what this relates to, i.e Central, Southern or FAN-1 etc.
Note: We should see a reduction in risk post SNE being trued up, which should decrease our risked weightings across anything within tie back. - This will increase net to FAR IMHO substantially.
All the necessary disclaimers - DYOR, GLTAH etc.
Note, this is a future view which will require a lot more work to get to. It is intended as a visual interpretation of the overall size of the FAN's / SNE, in light of some of the updated diagrams we have received.
Not intended as advice, pure curiosity given the tight hole and absence of detail.
P.S, this is probably my 10th attempt at trying to compile this sheet. Loads of assumptions / details / variables to deal with. Apologies for any errors, and needless to say, I am sure there is still some issues with it.
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