Montrachet,
Look at this way. War or peace the oil price will rise. Since when has a fully fledged world war in the middle east broken out, east against west, and the oil market stood still dumbfounded?
The problem is we have corrupted and manipulated futures markets in Chicago that set the prices of commodities as an arm of US monetary, trade and foreign policy. But if a war breaks out, Russia against America in the middle east (which absolutely won't and can't happen) then those markets won't mean anything anymore. The value of commodities in a war setting reverts back to their utilitarian and supply value not their value in trade or in financial markets. All hypothetical because us humans have learnt from the past. I'm very surprised at Turkey taking such an opportunistic and heavy handed approach, I thought they had learned from the first two world wars and from the truly inspirational figure in their history Mustafa Kemal Atatürk . Eshmun
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mustafa_Kemal_Atatürk
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