yield of 16%? some estimates re MND, page-105

At what stage is there no more downside risk factored in?

Looking at MND's financials over the years:
Revenue has grown from 155.6 million in 2002 to 1865m in 2015 (CAGR 13%)
Profit margins have been 5 & 7% throughout the last decade
There is 186m in cash on the balance sheet
The current EV is ~340m
Even if you assume Zero growth in the long term, and long-term sustainable revenue of 50% FY 2015 (900m) with a 5% margin, I still get a valuation in the order of $6.80 using a WACC of 0.1. The last time they were under this revenue was in 2007!

Going backwards, the kind of assumptions you need for current valuations are in the order of 4% margins on revenue of 800m with zero growth in the long-term.  I have no idea what will happen in terms of the mining boom to bust and when the environment will change, but the management to date of monadelphous has been exceptional (at least financially) and certainly they have been more nimble that competitors at reducing headcount in the setting of dropping revenues (since 2013 the headcount has dropped from 7400 to 4500 with net profit/ employee increasing from $21K to $23.5K in this timeframe).

@MarsC - At what stage do you think this becomes a compelling valuation? What figures justify the current valuation? Will be interested to see the upcoming financials, but from my analysis I can't justify the price going much lower than currently.