Ann: Strongly Improving Monetisation Trends for World Phone, page-72

This is my dilemma looking for a reason / the right time to buy back in

This is how I see things.

Pros

Current advertising spend has reduced marketing cost by approx $1,140000 per 1/4,
Growth did not tail off with reduced marketing spend but remains roughly on trend
2 x new Apps released soon, new product features, new pricing / payment system & Corona enhanced
White Label Telco deals in embryonic negotiation stage with approx 4 parties
World Credit will to some degree bypass, App Store and Google play, saving 30% of revenue

Cons

Google Play and Apple Store get 30% of some revenue
Seasonal Variation in revenue run rate means it may go up and down
Current cash Burn Rate (with reduced marketing spend) would still only last 3 1/4's (from the end of last 1/4) if NOR continue marketing WP only
Likely marketing spend increase required with new app's launch
Growth in revenue is not currently fast enough to significantly replenish cash spent (needs to be x 7 so revenue growth trend needs to increase)
Cash on hand will deplete fast if new products require marketing
2 x Corona deals will trigger bonus shares issue of approx 15% (any time)
Consecutive 12 months with revenue upwards of 3m will trigger another bonus share issue of approx 15% (likely next year)
Dynamic Pricing needs tuning, during which time revenue may fluctuate
New Apps will take time to monetize and penetrate markets
Bank Balance could do with being a lot bigger to do justice and give stability
Going to 1/4 reporting (investors are flying blind longer)
App Annie figures will become unreliable, until proportional purchasing trends are established, being bypassed by World Credit

Potential Positive Maybe's

White Label up front one off cash Payment, plus ongoing revenue share, could improve cash on hand.
Corona deals could eventuate at any time (but they are initially double edged).
Android may kick in (delayed) at its market share size of the revenue and increase the revenue growth trend
World Credit might entice more users
Dynamic Pricing might entice, more day to day usage and talk credit spending by existing users

Conclusion

Wait out for a clearer bottom / turn around

I saw another post where someone suggested, if 100m users were purchased to get positive cash flow, revenue would be 100m, I have started to come around to this idea.

Even if 30m users were able to be acquired it would give more gain than pain I think, so that rate of growth became cream and not essential to stave of CR's.

With bank balance looking decidedly more long term, it would be nice to see $20m in the bank for LT piece of mind, though this still wont stave off bonus share issue.

If bonus shares go to all share holders it will be largely cost neutral, if they go elsewhere directors and seed investors its another reason for me to wait out longer, still not clear on this point.

Regards Mark H