What could be the possibility of Neg Annoucement?, page-9

The biggest remaining news that could negatively affect the share price would be the results of drilling Icewine2, if after proving the sweet spot, thermal maturity, porosity, rock mechanics and reviewing the 3D the first production well fails then obviously the SP would crash

In the mean time we have,
-Rock mechanics to prove the ability to fracture (already indicated to be good by 88 and further confirmation by the neighbouring Great Bear)
-Internal and external resource estimate expected to come in above 1 billion bbls recoverable (88 have acquired additional acreage and proven resource to be in the top end of expectation)
-3D acquisition (this further proves the paly)
-Independent resource estimate (as above)
-Funding announcement (could go either way but DW inferred that its a box ticking exercise from here)
-JV announcement (unless we give away the acreage this will be positive)
-Conventional potential (seems to currently be excluded from calcs so any plays will be positive)
-Break even price estimation (DW has indicated that the BEP will be below $52/bbl unconventional and $34 conventional so confirmation of this should be positive)
-Oil price movements (if it tanks the project will be shelved until profitable, if like most analysts predict it recovers by EOY then expect this to be substantially further derisked)

So if you consider the expected news flow over the coming months it is quite safe to assume that the majority of the proving steps will be positive, which brings us until about December at the earliest when Ice2 will be drilled, if this fails then expect the SP to drop back to somewhere around current level or a little above until they drill the next well. If this is a success then you could expect the SP to reflect about 20/30c/ billion bbls recoverable in place.

In summary any bad news should be a long way away, the stream of SP accretive news over the coming months will likely dominate.

IMO DYOR ETC