TFC 7.42% $1.31 tfs corporation limited

Market Announcements, page-72

  1. 1,089 Posts.
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    tippy, my post needs no correction. On the contrary, your post reveals that you have not done much research of your own, but you are very quick to cast doubts on posts made by others. The Cannacord research reports (available on the TFS web site) are the most detailed that I have seen and they have a very good history of being close to correct over several years. Their prediction in their September 2015 report (page 4) was:

    "We expect TFC to enter the Chinese wood market over the coming 12 months at similar prices to its current oil price (US$4,500/kg oil = US$166/kg heartwood). We estimate ~50% of TFC’s harvest proceeds will be sold to the Chinese wood market in FY17 – FY20."

    This was spot on with price and reasonably close on the amount (some also went to India).

    The Cannacord report (page 9) also refers to the independent research on the market size:

    "Independent research marketed to the Beyond Carbon institutional investors estimates the implicit market demand for Indian Sandalwood at 28.6k tn pa, which is expected to grow to 37k tn pa by CY20 and >50k tn pa by CY30."

    This is extremely positive for TFS which will only produce around 5,500 tonnes by the late twenties. No one else will be supplying the market with sustainable oil at that time, so the price could go very much higher yet.

    Also it does not matter if they sell wood or oil. The end result is the same. See the first quote above for the conversion. From the next harvest, TFC is selling all of its owned production to the wood market (180 tonnes). Then it will process the MIS investors wood for oil and collect processing fees and royalties from Galderma. By selling all its owned harvest as wood, TFC will get its revenue earlier. The other investors will wait longer for processing into oil.

    Some of my earlier posts give details of the value added wood products. These include luxury carvings furniture and cabinetry.

    tippy, I suggest you do more research before rubbishing other posts, or if you can't do that, then ask questions rather than accuse others of being wrong.
 
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