Uh no I'm not. I'm basing it off the fact that roughly
of 100 explorers, 5 become developers. of those 5 developers, 2-3 will get funding to finish their mine.
of those 2-3, 1-2 will have teething issues involved with being an unexperienced producer and end up requiring far more capital than they expected and have higher operating expenses for the first few years.
Finally, those that do succeed will most likely be taken over, and if they are taken over its normally at a premium to their CURRENT price, which may do nothing for shareholders who bought during the hype stage (usually between exploration and development).
Think of it this way, how many independent producing miners can you name?
Probably 30-50?
There are 2000 stocks on the ASX and ~700 are mining CURRENTLY. Since September last year, 81 companies have delisted from the ASX. Since 2000, 6654 companies have delisted from the ASX. Which can be due to being taken over, going broke, being suspended 3+ years (likely broke).
So just look at the chances here of trying to pick a successful mining stock from start to beginning and you'll see my point. You'd be better off timing your investments than trying to pick a miner that goes from explorer to successful producer. Simple as that.
