To simplify:
1. Skippen/Grech stabilise things so cash neutral/slightly positive short term, so no need further lender drawdowns.
2. Lenders best hope for maximum recovery is not to enforce rights but keep things going see what happens.
3. The firm doesn't fall apart under all the strain with exodus talent and clients.
In my view:
There's some doubt about point 1.
There's not much doubt about point 2.
There's a lot of doubt about point 3.
Fail on any one of the three points and it's going to zero or very close. So have to multiply the probabilities of 1, 2 and 3.
Short term, I think we might see an SGH special "idiot rally" as some retail investors just focus on point 1. or 2. I very much doubt instos touching SGH with barge pole at the moment. Some "retail mugs" have offline broker accounts, so there'll be some of that in the data. It's also an exciting trading stock now, so masses of buy/sell volume back forth from traders.
SGH Price at posting:
37.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
