re: 400m npv.next avm.possibly.wilf These "brick in wall" project developments rarely do get a market reaction Wilf and this lack of market reaction is kind of what I like to see as this annmnt doesnt really put any inherent value into the project.Neither did the Byrnecut or EPC appointments.Sure it positively intimates a go ahead but it doesnt actually add financial value to it as the success with the offtake and finance will.
As far as what the market thinks re Perkoa happening only the chart tells one this imo and it has shown a solid positive upward base trend that to date has been rarely broken and even then not by much.What is of particular interest is that the Far East Capital valuation apportioned to Aim/Perkoa at 12c(pre offtake/finance valuation) has held fairly solid.
Take a look at the first paragraph under the heading 'Bankable Feasibility Study Last December' in this link
http://www.aimresources.com.au/pdfs/aim_commentary_feb06.pdf
and one can see on what basis this accumulation may be taking place.Far East were saying that at the then zinc price of $1.06/lb($2,350/t) the stock was undervalued at a 33% discount to the full NPV of 147M when trading at 8c in Feb 2006.The sp did a subsequent quickish rise to the mid teens as Far East buyers appeared to take up the stock to the full discounted suggested valuation.
What should be realised is that the market(buyers-sellers)has no other valuation indicator other than the original Bfs and hence 147M and the pre offtake-finance discount guide of 33% discount brings this back to 12/13c.
The offtake/finace has the POTENTIAL to change this dramatically by indicating what Aim will get for their zinc and therefore attribute an updated NPV value to Perkoa and also CONFIRM the approval of the banks virtually assuring the go ahead NPV of Perkoa.
As far as where the sp might head pre start-up of Perkoa I'm beginning to bed down anywhere between 30 to 40c(approx 50% discount on 88c/400M NPV) on the basis of a much higher Npv IF Aim can achieve a zinc price anywhere near what those 400M NPV figures suggest.
d.
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