Cairn Preliminary Results and Cath's MMC Presentation

What can we expect on Tuesday evening?  Lots would be my guess.  Its extraordinary for Cairn to forshadow as it did on 9 March an update on the revision of the resource estimates in its upcoming Preliminary Results.  They said after SNE-2  results on 4 January that "Following this first successful appraisal well, resource estimates for the SNE field will be fully revised and announced after the results of the further appraisal activity." I thought then that they meant once the 3 well program was complete not after SNE-3.  When they announced SNE-3 results they said "Resource estimates for the SNE field continue to be revised and an update will be announced at the company’s preliminary results on 15 March 2016."  I reckon if they were only going to increase the rresource by say the 40% that RISC added they wouldn't be making such a fuss ... it will be more than that particularly as Cath indicated last May that COP wanted 700mbbls to go ahead and take operatorship.  Makes you wonder what has been happening in the background (COP manoeuvring, approaches from other parties) to motivate what we hope will be a major expose of just what they think they have in Senegal.

Big questions are 1) will the JV declare 1,2 and 3P reserves, 2) What will they say about MEFS and commerciality, 3) What will they say about the forward plan (eg the fourth well, the contingent wells), and 4) What will be said about operatorship (will COP step in early on a rumoured "unofficial DoC?).

Its a real dream scenario at present for FAR and for shareholders with success upon success and the eyes of the industry on them and Senegal.

Comments and suggestions most welcome.

H