That volumetric discrepancy betwn Cairn's 2C-385 & FAR's 2c-468mmbbls was questioned by the bird frm Macq at CNE's conf call (pg-14, Q6). U can read the answer in the transript below.
I can see Cairn's sequential approach of beefing 'up' the figure on a well by well basis. OIIP post-SNE3 has increased, so should their 2C-385 in due course.
Best part of the field from a development perspective is in the guts of the structure, as mentioned a few days back, ie betwn SNE1 & 2.
Sadly most of the basal blocky sand (& many other decent chunks) that were seen at SNE1 & tested at SNE2 r water wet. On the southern flank at SNE3 they have different sands. These aren't in pressure communication with the main 8k bopd sand.
Also a pressure decline was observed during the test. So from a volumetric perspective u simply cant assume a 30m net across the feld with 30% recfac. U'r dealing with a burger scenario (layers of cheese, vegie, meat), so each sand will have its attributes factored into the resource model & accordingly contribute a 'MMbbls figure'.
The overall field size is ~354 (+/-) sqkms by my estimates. This matches what Cairn r saying as >350 sqkms. I won't assume 30m net oil pay across that sort of area from just 3 wells or 30% recfac for that matter for thin sands, more like a proportion attributed to each.
Need to see more data from infill or fringe wells first so that the blanket increases or shrinks accordingly. Hope they drill 2 more wells on SNE after BEL#1.
IMO, they should know by sometime late next week where things r at B#1's top section. And there's only 1 place she'll b hanging out on the Athena nxt week, i.e in the Loggers shack taking the piss out of the geo's Loggers, WSG eyeballing the gas chrom'ph, as in r we there yet !! Typical of delegates.
So, nothing new to add really until the next bit of update from B#1. Later....
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Cairn's SP rally last nite was due to reduction of taxes from 20% to 10% for North Sea operators, not Senegal or India related. Link to story below.
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