FAR far limited

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12 months along the risk curve, page-8

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hardmano

16,392 Posts.

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19/03/16

15:20

Post #: 17318436
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Originally posted by resourceinvestor ↑

On the topic of risk ... a few remarks......
SNE development, on the basis of info in the public domain, does not appear particularly risky nor challenging relative to other oil developments implemented historically:

The API density of the crude is reasonable so viscosity and such issues as oil and water emulsions at surface hopefully ok. However, no info on wax or asphaltenes but these can be dealt with if an issue

Probably no sand control issues usually associated with unconsolidated sands as 100% recovery of core implies consolidated sands

Reservoir permeability likely good based on well test results. Porosity looked good from the core images shown in CNE presentation

Subsea development in deep water is complex but very much a standard industry practice

Horizontal wells are also standard and would achieve high production rates

Placement of horizontal wells would be a key focus i.e. Where to place relative to gas oil contact and oil water contact and in which sands. Water influx over time would need to be considered given uncertainty in aquifer size and influence

Gas reinjection and maybe supplementary gas from BEL could be injected in the gas cap to maintain reservoir pressure and oil rates and enhance displacement of oil to horizontal wells located down dip in each sand

So the key risk, in my humble view, is the volume of oil in place. This reduces to an uncertainty rather than a risk once a commercial volume is proved up. i.e. The issue, in simple terms,becomes one of sizing the development to match the volumes and distribution of volumes across the field. A marvelous problem to have. Of course there is another issue on a field with a large surface area (~300km2) to do with how many appraisal wells are necessary to better define field volumes and distribution of reservoir sands. This has cost and time implications. Staged development is an option but not necessarily efficient.

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resourceinvestor

Another well informed poster ... like Ya. Thanks for that analysis. Particularly the likelihood of consolidated sands and hence no sand influx problems .. I recall that was an issue at Chinguetti requiring special equipment and remediation.

Whisky

Great analysis of the risk or rather the relative lack of it now .. we are of the same mind!

H
FAR Price at posting: 10.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
10 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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12 months along the risk curve, page-8

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