Looks like you had fun crunching those numbers
@domum !
I was taking a look at the DeGolyer numbers, as mentioned above.
The following is just a stab at what the IRR might contain. Not necessarily what's actuall there.
In simple terms if we now apply double the mean productive acreage (approx), new additional tenement from November, then it translates to around 8.2billion OOIP.
IF 10% recovery = 800million.
20= 1.6 billion
I think the IRR will most likely reflect their previous report ++
They will factor in the new porosity and permeability data which will most likely take them toward 15% recoverable, imo.
So I would expect to see around 1-1.5 billion mean RECOVERABLE in the up coming IRR.
The previous report used ~6% recovery and of course estimated (USGS) shale characteristics.
If we look at a conservative 8 billion OOIP and then factor it for improved data then we could see the mean skewed towards 12-15billion, towards the P10 end.
This would give us approx 1.5-3billion recoverable depending on what Deg and Mac use after their readjustment based on ice 1. Then of course factored by the % ownership/dilution.
It's 4am so not much detail!
More tomorrow.
View attachment 159062
(20min delay)