Not even close.
You are saying for a 5 to 10 year bet. Let's say that the price (theoretically is going to be $5.00). You park your money in SGH now at 25c with let's say a 20% chance of $5.00 (2000% return) and an 80% chance of $0 (100% loss). Expected Return is 400%
Now let's say Tumble doesn't buy now but buys after the banks confirm support for SGH. He pay's 50c with an 80% chance of $5.00 (1000%) and 20% chance of $0.00 (100% loss). Expected Return is 800%.
Even ignoring statistics if you are willing to take risks you could invest in an oil and gas or a gold junior and make 50 to 100% on far less risk now and then invest in SGH after banks give support (even if that is at 50c) and make the same return. For considerably less risk
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SGH
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$51.61

Why I brought SGH, page-16
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Last
$51.61 |
Change
1.520(3.03%) |
Mkt cap ! $21.00B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$50.59 | $52.05 | $50.35 | $23.49M | 454.7K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 3110 | $51.53 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$51.92 | 294 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 96 | 51.060 |
1 | 100 | 50.850 |
1 | 130 | 50.750 |
1 | 50 | 50.040 |
3 | 1150 | 50.000 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
52.030 | 700 | 1 |
52.040 | 985 | 1 |
52.200 | 100 | 1 |
52.500 | 617 | 3 |
52.640 | 96 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 18/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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SGH (ASX) Chart |