Not even close.
You are saying for a 5 to 10 year bet. Let's say that the price (theoretically is going to be $5.00). You park your money in SGH now at 25c with let's say a 20% chance of $5.00 (2000% return) and an 80% chance of $0 (100% loss). Expected Return is 400%
Now let's say Tumble doesn't buy now but buys after the banks confirm support for SGH. He pay's 50c with an 80% chance of $5.00 (1000%) and 20% chance of $0.00 (100% loss). Expected Return is 800%.
Even ignoring statistics if you are willing to take risks you could invest in an oil and gas or a gold junior and make 50 to 100% on far less risk now and then invest in SGH after banks give support (even if that is at 50c) and make the same return. For considerably less risk
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SGH
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$49.28

Why I brought SGH, page-16
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Last
$49.28 |
Change
0.260(0.53%) |
Mkt cap ! $20.05B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$49.42 | $49.85 | $49.23 | $16.99M | 344.3K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 352 | $49.28 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$49.34 | 114 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 454 | 49.190 |
1 | 1416 | 49.180 |
1 | 646 | 49.140 |
1 | 369 | 49.120 |
1 | 72 | 49.100 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
49.450 | 1407 | 1 |
49.490 | 1099 | 3 |
49.510 | 369 | 1 |
49.540 | 537 | 1 |
49.560 | 409 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 17/09/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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SGH (ASX) Chart |