Ann: Euroz Conference Presentation, page-93

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emanuel007

78 Posts.

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08/04/16

13:29

Post #: 17456298
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Originally posted by goldbear77 ↑

nightmare - not to be slighting of you - but that analysis doesnt make any sense. stock prices dont get measured on basis of share price vs share price.

they get measured on relatvie valuation of earnings/per share., resource per share etc

RSG is roughly 3x as expensive as TRY on a forward EPS basis assuming TRY hits the 150kozpa at $us450/oz aisc that the positive reconciliation appears to suggest

ie. RSG currently $60m normalised NPAT - $360m mkt cap = 6x p/e

TRY currently $60- 80m NPAT likely - $187m mkt cap = 3 - 2x p/e

but the difference is TRY is where RSG was last December - its historic numbers still look terrible.

Will need to prove the positive reconciliation numbers actually are true and repeatable before it gets priced for more than its guidance = 110koz at $733AUD aisc = $88m operational cashflow = prob 40m NPAT if you put the debt repayments to one side.

So for now - small cap instos will only value TRY at $40m npat = nearly 5x p/e. And conservative instos wont touch it at all until it delivers a half year report that shows profitability.

So contrasting rsg and try share prices is largely misleading - as they also arent technically on the same trends.

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Goldbear

How do u come up with an NPAT of $60-80m? Look at the PPE and other book assets associated with Karuni. D+A is going to be significant.

TRY Price at posting: 58.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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0 Great analysis

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