Deutsche Bank Is Crashing Again: Why One Hedge Fund Expects Much More Pain For European Banks, page-73

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12/04/16

13:27

Post #: 17482227
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Originally posted by cncventure ↑

I think this is subtly different than the 1930s.

My assessment is as follows:

The USD isn't fixed to the price of gold, so the Fed won't revalue the price of gold, the market will it do it (a bit like in the 70s).

The Fed (along with all central banks around the world that are governing economies that are overly indebted with investments in unproductive assets) will just continue to loosen monetary policy, (ie expanding the monetary bases by buying financial assets) and keep real interest rates low (to create financial repression) until it essentially forces up NOMINAL prices of everything (particularly tangible assets, like gold).

I suspect gold will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of this policy because it is the most liquid form of tangible asset (though things like houses (in markets that have already crashed, like the US) and stocks (that's haven't already been inflated, like the SP500) will also do OK).

Eventually the market will take the bait (which I think is happening now) and realise it's the person holding the cash (or bonds) that is going to wear the real loss in the long run as the velocity of money will eventually increase as people look spend/invest it quickly rather than hoard it (which is what people do during deflation) which will create the inflation the Fed has been waiting for to debase the debts.

The increasing the velocity of money coupled with the already expanded monetary base will increase nominal GDP and this will flow through to increasing nominal wages which will allow the currently over-indebted economic participants to start paying down their which are also nominal, which will have been debased in real terms in the Fed also keeps rates low.

Eventually the economy will become more productive again as debt to GDP levels are brought back to historic norms.

That's the plan, whether it works or not should be interesting, but a bet on gold at current prices is basically a bet both ways, either it works and inflation increases rapidly - good for gold, or it doesn't and people look for alternative monetary assets - good for gold.

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I know they won't, but they could if they want to. Band aid QE is the new preferred solution. Regardless, gold will go up.. a beneficiary from global rout, inflation, severe deflation & currency war.
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Deutsche Bank Is Crashing Again: Why One Hedge Fund Expects Much More Pain For European Banks, page-73

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