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Hi BGG,

agree with you 3 points entirely. You certainly put it all in a nut shell.

Here is my 2 cents worth on where we stand today. Perhaps this will help calm the nerves of some of our more nervous investors.

As we all now know there was major profit taking today with perhaps some market manipulation going which excerbated the SP falls in both EDE (and TAS). IMHO there were two reasons for this:

1. the market got a bit ahead of itself yesterday's i.e. the pretty pics that GS put out were not really anything new.

2. There was an article in The Australian that said that GS was considering a debt to equity swap to finance the plant in Augusta. This raised the spectre of a CR and investors headed for the exits.


IMHO where the SP closed on Friday (25 cents) is fair value for EDE right now. Anything above this amount is hot air. The next news items that will send the SP higher for "factual" reasons i.e. based on "new" developments are:

1. The quarterly out next week which may give us our first brief insight into the profitability of EdenCrete etc.
2. News that the GDOT has signed off on their specs and started ordering EdenCrete for Class B applications
3. GS makes it clear how the plant in Augusta is going to be financed. A 1:10 RI IMHO would be good news! BTW I reckon this will be the very last CR as future financing requirements will be entirely financed using sales revenue.
4. News that other DOT's have put in orders for Class B applications (will only happen after point 2. has happened).
5. Further news of major private commercial orders.
6. News that the GDOT is closer to approving EdenCrete for Class A applications.
7. The GDOT's final approval for Class A applications.
8. The GDOT orders EdenCrete for Class A applications.
9. News that other DOT's have put in orders for Class A applications (will only happen after point 7. has happened)

There will be probably quite a few other announcements other than the above over the next months, however, I believe that these will probably be the most signficant ones that will affect the SP the most. As for the time frame, I expect all of the above news items to be received at the very latest by the end of September this year. As a medium term investment strategy I would only be a seller when this very last news item has been received. By then the SP should be worth at least AUD1.00. I for one, however, will be waiting far longer before I sell!

Best regards to all and DYOR!