Here are some other estimates of first quarter 2016 US GDP. The Atlanta Fed estimate (of 0.3%) last updated on April 19 is not the most negative. Wells Fargo Bank's estimate (last updated April 22) comes in at 0.1%. As mentioned on my previous posts on this subject the Atlanta Fed uses a very similar set of indicators/feeds to the Fed. The Fed will know the situation is grim. It's just a question of whether they release buoyed up estimates to stop any rot in the markets setting in and then revise the number down on the final read or whether just their dovishness on the rate picture we be enough to hold markets up (kick the can down the road a little more).
If they remain hawkish on rates against the disappointing 2016 Q1 GDP result that will be as good as setting the fuss off on the equity and bond markets. In that case you should be buying as much downside protect as you can possibly find (if you aren't already) IMHO. That's if any protection really exists. When all asset prices are inflated there is really nowhere to run.
Eshmun
BDR Price at posting:
30.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
