confession?

Outlook on 17/11/2015-----------bullish tone
 Strong balance sheet and increased operating cash flows  Continued investment in growth initiatives  Consumer Leasing continues to deliver solid underlying results  Commercial Finance growing rapidly and driving diversification  Consumer Finance repositioned with new platform  NCML restructured with PDL investment and growing arrangement bank  Growth in receivables underpins future performance

Today's guidance--------------still bullish tone but real figures were not good looking
surely NCML acquisition was mistake, goodwill loss & trading losses
cannot ignore non cash goodwill loss $6.7m as paid it only few years ago
also cannot ignore $2.3m for the closure of TFS
also cannot ignore $2.8m for provision as most likely could not get it back
NPAT is expected to be within a range of $19m to $21m.-------$20m

FY2015 NPAT was $30.59m
FY2016 NPAT would be 35% worse than FY2015 NPAT

Outlook on 17/11/2015 sounded like another better year
I felt that the management has been over optimistic
PC, FRIDGE, MICROWAVE, SPORT EQUIPMENT,...........getting cheaper and cheaper. Consumers affordability has become much better.
Another word, the rental business is getting less profit
the downtrend started from Jan 2015. Yes, the market is right again

I started to build short position from today