my thoughts on NOR

Mmmmmmm so much to digest.



The bad:

From appendix 4c we can note that as of march 31st they have cash burn rate of 3.4 million per quarter.

That was march. Its now 29th April so we can can assume that its about 2.1 million left right now.

The income for the quarter was negligible and the company has on 2.9 million in the bank as of 3st march.

So.... with a cash burn rate of 3.4 million and only 2.9 in cash the company will crash and burn within the next quarter. Oh goody.


* No firm dates on WP 2 for Android or CORONA release.

Seems to be at least a few weeks away or they would have been tempted to commit to a date. 80% of the world smartphone market is android so this is holding back marketing and revenue growth although PO did stat that apple has been a far larger income stream.
Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/vala-afshar/50-incredible-wifi-tech-s_b_4775837.html

* No firm announcements of possible corona release customers or partners. Understandable given the early stages of build but undesirable given the cash flow situation. This is now 3 months overdue and looks to be at least until mid next quarter. Not even a few names of interested companies or partners.



The good


1. World phone is growing at 10,000 a day with 4,100 downloads so far

let that sink in. In one year in even at current levels that will add 520,000 downloads to world phone. But assuming a linear relationship is not correct.

Apps like world phone tend to have logarithmic growth as word of mouth spreads fast so there is now good signs that WP will be one of the market leaders along with Skype, Zip and FLX in this space (beating global roaming with renting local fixed lines ) within 6-12 months.

I think its reasonable to assume that WP will overtake Zip next quarter and downloads of over 6 Million is going to start to attract attention and respect of major players.



OTT contracts

1. There are 7 mobile operators interested in OTT contracts with NOR from their recent release on April 29th.

The first is Vietnam Post and telecomunications group.

In 2015 this company had revenue of 4 Billion dollars ( US ! )

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_Posts_and_Telecommunications_Group#cite_note-12res-1

They have over 33 million mobile subscribers
source: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160321/pdf/435zft17n8wnxc.pdf




Hard to know what percentage of revenue comes from mobiles but lets assume 30%

So if traditional teleco's are facing up to 50% loss of earning Nor could be looking at making inroads into a 1.3 billion dollar market.

Now we do don't know what the other 6 are and even if agreements can be reached but lets assume they get the 3 of the six on board and they are half the size of VNPT on average. That means Nor is looking at tapping a market of around  2-3 billion dollars.

Its hard to imagine the potential revenue but does not seem unreasonable that if NOR can help retain a portion of 2-3 billion dollars in lost teleco income Nor could retain at least 100 million dollars from the 4 telecos in a white label deal.

The important question is can they secure even a fraction of this in time before the cash burn hits ?


* World Wi-fi

Scant detail but the release contains a statement that they are applying for patents for this which will also increase the value of NOR. I don't blame them for this. Any info released to investors is also released to their competition who may be better resourced and funded.

lets have a look at why wifi is the hottest growth investment this decade.

By 2020, it is predicted that 24 Billion devices will be connected to the Internet. The vast majority will use some form of wireless for access. – Gigaom
– http://www.huffingtonpost.com/vala-afshar/50-incredible-wifi-tech-s_b_4775837.html

60% of people can’t go without Wi-Fi for more than 1 day. – Iconic Displays

1. At the end of 2013, there were more mobile devices than people on earth. – http://www.huffingtonpost.com/vala-afshar/50-incredible-wifi-tech-s_b_4775837.html

This space is hot and full of competitors ( But its a very big space. If NOR can find something unique about its service it should find a very profitable market here )


.......... So in a nutshell ?

Great company doing great things and well on the way to building a global confederate network but running out of money before they can secure the right leads and markets.

Solution will be either a capital raising next quarter ( not a bad thing in my view ) or an angel investor willing to loan significant money for some type of arrangement.

Would value all polite thoughts, refinments and contributions to my humble opion.

Brentv