Any fundamental Analysts out there like to take a potshot at price target for us? Below I have presented 3 very basic valuations, based on further sales eventuating this year.
M.C.-$23mil S.P.-0.16 Reserves - 120 mil tonnes. Assumes ABX finds equivalent income to minimum 6 shipments of specialized bauxite annually market by end of 2016. Attainable I believe.
Valuations based on assumption of mining out only current reserves with no further growth/discoveries.
Val 1) Developed Product Bauxite Only
Assumptions; bulk Bauxite from Malaysia resumes and Indonesia return to market in 2016, meaning no viable bulk raw market until 2018, ABX current client increases demand to 120k/annum, 3 other customer found one shipment/annum for a developed bauxite product at EBITDA/tonne $30. Total: 240k/annum. Net Profit margin after research/development deductions: $25/tonne attributable to shareholders.
Annual Profit: $6mil., Assuming market allocates value 6% div. of Market Cap= $100,000,000. S.P.= $0.60, + asset ownership 119 miltonnes allowance 0.05*$10*119m = $59.5m M.C. S.P. $0.41 ...
TOTAL $1.01 S.P. by 2017.
(Increases 2018/19 when bauxite market recovers).
Val 2)
Assumptions; bulk Bauxite from Malaysia resumes and Indonesia return to market in 2016 by Aug when Chinese stockpiles depleted, under refined operating standards (higher production costs), meaning viable but low-value bulk raw market until 2018, ABX developed bauxite products at EBITDA/tonne $30 (4-6 customers) 400kt. Total: 240kt/annum. Bulk Raw shipments: 200kt/annum at EBITDA/tonne $15
Net Profit after research/development, taxes, interest: $25/tonne developed, $8/tonne raw, attributable to shareholders.
Annual Profit: $7.6 mil., Assuming market allocates value 6% div. of Market Cap= $127m. S.P.= $0.88, + asset ownership 119 miltonnes allowance 0.05*$10*119m = $59.5m M.C. S.P. $0.41 ...
TOTAL $1.29 S.P. by 2017.
(Increases 2018/19 when bauxite market recovers).
Val 3)
Assumptions: ABX sells 240k.t./annum developed product at EBITDA/tonne $30, Chinese stockpiles diminished (due Aug 2016) Malaysia exhausted its reserves (suggested in mining publication), Indonesia enters market under Australian equivalent marketing conditions propelling price back into $40-60/tonne range. ABX finds market 1mil tonnes/annum at EBITDA/tonne $15.
Net Profit after research/development, taxes, interest: $25/tonne developed, $8/tonne raw, attributable to shareholders.
Annual Profit: $14mil., Assuming market allocates value 6% div. of Market Cap= $233,000,000. S.P.= $1.60, + asset ownership 119 miltonnes allowance 0.05*$10*119m = $59.5m M.C. S.P. $0.41c ...
TOTAL $2.01 S.P.
Dozens of holes and assumptions in this analysis I realise. So debunkers please provide your own valuation with justifying analysis rather than just trashing mine, for all to compare and adjust including me.![]()
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Last
7.0¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $17.63M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
7.0¢ | 7.3¢ | 6.8¢ | $49.67K | 705.1K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 14507 | 6.9¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
7.4¢ | 100000 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 14507 | 0.069 |
2 | 416878 | 0.068 |
1 | 150000 | 0.067 |
2 | 220000 | 0.066 |
3 | 625398 | 0.065 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.074 | 100000 | 1 |
0.075 | 12261 | 2 |
0.077 | 79854 | 1 |
0.078 | 149091 | 2 |
0.079 | 33300 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 11/09/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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