Re "
Even you aatisket admitted it was promising that the extension had lapsed with no ann that negotiations had ceased. Clearly they haven't and they are all fully engaged in what is a lengthy process. That's a bullish sign."
Yes, although I am just stating my opinion as I see it; you say "
admitted" as if I have been cornered on the matter which is not really the case given that I could just simply not post on the subject if I wanted to hide my opinion. As Celgene are still talking, no-one should really believe that they are asking which way the exit is; if that were the case, we would have been told - little doubt in my mind. Like everyone, I am interested in the tiny details of the deal from msb's perspective (I have asked the company directly and was advised to (re) listen to the Feb webcast), and the applications they include. I would be surprised if they did not pick up and fund the phase 3 crohn's disease trials and, of course, agvhd, Any other thoughts on what else they will pick up?
In fairness, despite what you suggest, I was not assuming the renewal of the rofr in December was the end of the road either. In fact, after reading some of the recent posts since the very routine announcements last week, I would suggest that I am more bullish than some of the holders (or ex-holders in some cases). In my view - each to their own - it is amazing that someone would think it was time to get out when the cash-burn was bang on what the company estimated - and is considerably less than previous years - and also when there have been sales in Japan. The absence of royalties is immaterial, it is a timing issue and nothing more. If you weren't concerned about progress before, nothing reported last week should have shocked you into selling; you are really not ready to buy if you are going to sell in a panic on routine announcements.
@
Paulc8166, I think your post have added real value in this discussion about risk. I am assuming you have not risked the farm on this stock but are in at a level that you can relax and accept the risks as you see them. This is the perfect position to be in, you can ignore the SP panic. I agree with your list of risks and, looking at your post, I would suggest our respective levels of expectation as to the success of this company are reasonably similar. As you noted. that you have bought in and I have not is a reflection of our differing levels of risk-taking not our understanding of the risks.
(20min delay)