I'm as big a fan of ARB as any, and i'm a long-term holder, but their breakneck speed sales growth in the last 5 years (and even longer) needs to be viewed in the context provided by slides 12-14 of their market update: growth in 4WD/SUV new car sales in Australia has been running at an astonishing ~4 times the overall growth rate of the new car sales market, such that 4WD/SUV new car sales has gone from 34% to over 50% of total new car sales. I'm inclined to believe this trend won't continue (i.e. i don't think that, in 15 years, every single new car sold in Aus will be a 4WD/SUV) and, given ARB generates 2/3rds of its revenue in Australia, any slowdown (or reversal) in this trend will directly impact ARB.
I'm with MarsC on this - i certainly can't justify buying more ARB at these price levels given i strongly suspect their sales growth rate will imminently flatten once the Australian 4WD/SUV market matures (and, at 50% penetration rate, i'd say that maturation is rapidly approaching), but it's such a well-run and high quality company with a propensity to surprise to the upside that i can't justify selling, either.
ARB Price at posting:
$16.10 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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