I've used info from the quarterly and from the messages from Paulharris to work out project profit and cash.
These are in the google spreadsheet linked below - if anyone has any information to improve please let me know and I will update.
Assumptions:
1. 5% increase in revenue from sales per quarter (e.g. higher oil price etc)
2. Kept admin, production and exploration costs the same
3. Assumed they continue to pay approx $1.1M of loan capital per quarter
4. They pay 10M to Santos next quarter
My Conclusions:
1. Clash flow seems manageable - only going slightly negative in Q4'16, but this could easily be managed by holding back some of the loan capital repayments
2.The company is making a profit and simply based on this profit and a P/E=10 the share price should be around 10c in 2016 and around 30c in 2017, this ignores future potential when NEGI is complete and future exploration.
3. Overall conclusion - the SP is bottoming out as this is the year the company transitions to self-sufficient profit making company with significant potential future growth
Here's google spreadsheet - comments/corrections welcome:
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