Oil macro analysis, page-479

Thanks for your thorough analysis

I reckon oil will range $30-40 for a while yet and hit hard resistance at $50

Your comment about shalers waiting for $50 is relevant
Because of their supply coming back online $50 would seem to be a cap
Shale is a common resource in most countries so exploitation of that in the future would increase supply and cap the price

Only disasters , more wars, and political events will jump the oil price with the current world economy in the poor state it is in

Such things are not rare in the middle east so supply could be disrupted