Free Rivkin report, page-33

Look at what private mining industry capex is doing in Australia. Look at what it did at the prior cycle (downturn). Then take into account maintenance revenue versus project revenues (of MND). There is no sensible reason to think (that I can tell) that capex spending, Australia wide, will not continue to fall very substantially further.

PS: Re you comments about management. I completely agree. I do not so much want brilliant management, I really want steady (even boring) management. Most damage caused by management is, in my opinion, a result of "brilliance" (sometimes of course just self proclaimed, but not always) coupled with ego's that are out of control. I suspect also that those with highly inflated ego's often, if not always, have lower levels of integrity. As a very successful investor said, intelligence and energy without integrity, will kill you. I think the bottom line is that it's the culture of a place, more than the brilliance of the individuals, that matters. What matters most, wrt to the individuals, I suspect, is that they act to further and promote that culture.