The best way to answer that would be to investigate what income can be expected based on what we know and using some worst case scenarios for a fair analysis.
It was said that James Bay was going to be a replication of Mt Cattlin. If that is true then they would aim to have a production rate of 200,000tpa of spodumene per annum from each.
Assuming that spodumene pricing doesn't shift from $600 per tonne that would give a pre-cost income of $240 million US.
By around this time, I would imagine that there would be a ramp up of Sal de Vida (not full rate production 25kpta) taking place which would be producing a final grade of product. Price wise at the moment depends who you ask. Current pricing in China is ranging between $15,000 to $20,000 plus according to Anthony Tse in his SMI video. I predict up to $35,000 to $40,000 per tonne.
Some factors which will affect the share price are:
- How many shares are in the market.
- Where is Sal De Vida up to?
- Does the company return to the HKSE listing?
- Has the company found a way to vertically integrate spodumene processing according to the Mitsubishi agreement.
Calculating the predicted market cap based on:
- James Bay and Mt Cattlin are collaboratively producing 400,000tpa
- No inclusion of Sal De Vida including speculative market sentiment.
- Income based on 12.5% return before cost.
- No increase in the spodumene price ($600 US)
- Australian dollar still ranging close to 75c
- No spodumene processor or including further acquisitions.
Market cap approximately: $2.8 billion dollars. (That's in AUD)
