A funny thing happened..., page-9

Nice post Ace.

Some of the experienced will have the ability to detach themselves from the emotional attachment to such an investment.

Me, like Ace, believe that that emotional attachment is what gives the drive to research deeply enough to reach a relative state of contentment with their investment. And its this feeling that allows peace of mind.

This is one of those rare investments that, like Ice 1, ticks all those boxes imo.

I don't know that one could say that one really needs a HUGE chunk of faith in 88E/Bex/Icewine now,
unlike other spec conventional oilers that one waits with baited breath on the spud, or a gold stock that must come up with critical drill results to confirm a large enough presence of gold to make it economic.

Yes, we wait on Ice 2H initial flow/implied decline rates.

But all things being equal we know there is oil present in a strata that appears to be exceptional in terms of the criteria used to define successful unconventional plays. And in fact those criteria well exceed what is required for even the most successful with double traditional porosity and permeability several times greater than comparable Lower 48 plays.

We also know that the nature of unconventional plays is that they tend to be prolific source rocks for large conventional reservoirs but that they also tend towards a large acreage coverage due to the depositional nature of the turbidite fans that created these Brookian strata. Again the Ice 1 figures confirm with a very high 92% net pay interval of 180.5'.

If seismic can confirm via cross reference with logs that we have continuity of a large localized sweetspot at Ice 1/2H the majority of the basics are there bar flow rate parameters.

We also know Ice 1 is right on the volatile gas/liquids window with good seals and over pressure, again qualities required for a viable unconventional play.

As the industry regularly states with unconventional plays, generally the risk is not in the presence of hydrocarbons, its in the extraction thereof and many of those extractability factors are also well and truly to the positive.

We as investors, have done all we can possibly do to ensure that the reward is reflected by the leverage in combination with the results to date and that is backed by recent market placement success to some impressive funds/instos.

So I too, like Ace P, can step back from this investment and be content that what is to come has been derisked by a large margin by what has been.

The question I keep coming back to and asking myself is why would the foremost unconventional shale play expert have spent so much of his valuable time with such a play post his Eagle Ford experience if he didn't think it had a decent chance of success.

d.