These are my primary concerns:
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As you can see in the link below, the current market consensus for FY16 eps is a range 117.4 - 128.1 with the mean being 122.5
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/analyst?symbol=CZZ.AX
On Monday, the board of Capilano advised the market the following:
The Board of Capilano expects year on year growth of net profit after tax for the full year to 30 June 2016 of between 18% and 25%. This guidance is supported by continued gains in domestic market share (organically and via acquisitions), investment in new product development and acquisition related costs and investment in sales and marketing to support international growth.
Npat in FY15 was $7,845,047.
So if we apply the boards 18% - 25% yoy npat growth advice, we get the range $9,257,155 - $9,806,308.
There is currently 8,597,121 shares on the register.
Therefore, the board is advising FY16 eps to range between 108 - 114 cps. Clearly that is well below the current market consensus range of 117 - 128.
Using the boards eps guidance range and the current price of $21.50, the FY16 pe is now in the range 19.91 - 18.86.
In 1 months time, an additional 859,712 shares will enter the register. The boards FY16 eps range will effectively decline to 0.98 - 1.04, which at $21.5 equates to a pe range of 21.9 - 20.67. Of course this is not the eps that will be recorded in the FY16 accounts, but its a more accurate figure imho.
I will stand on the sidelines for the time being. A rational person would think the market consensus will naturally decline to match the companies guidance. Time will tell.
I have other doubts and concerns in regards to the timing of this cr and other factors which I wont go into on this forum.
GLTAH
