. Will there be an upward revision or three as the date draws closer?
economy added only 38,000 jobs last month. That wasn’t even in the ballpark when compared with estimates for a rise of 160,000. It was also the single-worst number since September 2010.
Was May an outlier? Nope. I say that because the Labor Department slashed April’s previously reported gain to 123,000 from 160,000 … and March’s number to 186,000 from 208,000. That confirms that 2016 is showing a marked slowdown in job growth from late 2015 and 2014.
Job losses weren’t concentrated in any one sector, either. Manufacturing lost another 18,000 … mining lost 10,000 … construction lost 15,000 … and temporary help lost 21,000. The latter figure is particularly troublesome, because as the Wall Street Journal noted recently, a decline in temp hiring preceded the last two major recessions. Is that what we’re seeing yet again?
Yes, the unemployment rate dipped to 4.7% from 5%. But that’s because the American workforce plunged by 458,000, while the labor force participation rate dropped another 0.2 percentage points to 62.6%. Those factors artificially depress the unemployment rate because of the way the math works.
Moreover, the so-called diffusion index that measures how many industry groups are hiring or firing fell to its lowest level in more than six years. Average hourly earnings also rose a lackluster 0.2%, compared with 0.4% in April, while average weekly hours were unchanged at 34.4.
Mike Larsen
Now I wonder where this is leading? Will there be data pointing to a recession released before the elections or is it all going to be quietly dataerised. The Democrats have quite a bit to lose if a recession is linked to fnancial mismanagement by Obama.
