A2M 0.41% $4.84 the a2 milk company limited

A2M fair value based on fundamentals, page-5

  1. 214 Posts.
    No idea. Its obvious that if a huge profit growth were to play out, this would dramatically increase the "real value" of the company and thus the shares.

    However, the current project herein is to assess the value of A2M today, using actual values, not estimates. If their profit increases again, we can do this all again in the future.

    Just out of interest.....

    Lets assume their profit grows by 25 % a year (yes I know this is probably off, but so is basically every estimate)

    current NPAT (2016 finn. year) = 25 mill (yes i estimated the second half)
    2017 = 25 *1.25 (25% more) = 31.25 mill
    2018 = 31.25 * 1.25 = 39.06
    2019 = 39.06 * 1.25 = 48.8
    2020 = 48.8 * 1.25 = 61

    So a PE of 20 (we assume a higher PE if A2M remains a growth company)
    Share price fair value 2017 = 31.25(NPAT)*20(PE)/660 (Shares outstanding) = $0.95
    2018 = $1.18
    2019 = $1.48
    2020 = $1.85

    I think I just learnt the power of compounding.

    Therefore current prices appear to be factoring a far larger growth in profits than the random number I used. Am I missing something again?
 
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