TEVA as equity financer????, page-80

Very much on the hop here – so briefly.

Yes anything is possible. You can take your pick from:

Extremely negative – Teva saw those interim results, they failed to meet the thresholds and so they walked. Why would any retail investor bet against the experts in big pharma.

Moderately negative – Teva saw the results, they were negative, they walked because they wanted out in the first place. Interim analyses are unreliable, poor predictors of final outcome and never designed for this purpose. Go ahead and have a bet against big pharma.

Positive – your scenario. MSB had Teva over a barrel. A delightful outcome for MSB shareholders. No-one has seen those interim results, that agreement was torn up ages ago with all the trial changes. Alternatively the FDA has over ridden it and said to both Teva / MSB not to jeopardise the integrity of this trial with silly commercial arrangements. Both Teva and MSB pulled their heads in. Market has overreacted; analysts have got their noses out joint; MSB have handled it badly. A very good bet.

I must admit to being of the moderately negative view but heading towards the positive. Mainly because of the trading pattern. It looks to me to be an amateur gap down. High uncertainty which has spooked retail investors. But this is an intuitive case – need to develop a proper yarn factor.

But I would say analysis and advice on HC is worth exactly what you pay for it. Which is nothing. No experts anywhere as far as I can see; just some more plausible posters than others for constructing the little stories we like to have in our heads when dabbling in these things.

All the best - Southoz