XPE General Topics, page-3164

Hi mate, sorry didn't remember your name and I was lazy to pull up the post to check. The corporate finance guys would be able to price the options up, and in some cases external advisers would advise the company on an option price fittin based on there calculations. The general accounting staff in XPE wouldn't squarely decide the option strike price.

The option price will factor in whatever factors they deem relevant to the strike price at the time. my point is all these factors aside, you have the value implied for the options at the time, and the move up in the share price to 10, 15 cents, even 20 cents it could have been. No one calculating the strike price at the time could accurately or knowingly anticipate these movements up and in turn not many bidding up the share price could even factor in the value of these options in their entirety. THe end result is the increased exercising, at current market value price, is likely (and has) to reduce the share price as exercised options are sold on-market.

I can bet my fine dollar that next to no one here would have punched up a big spreadsheet when calculating the implied XPE price as well as post the dilution/exercise of options, to arrive at a market value share price. The market is at times definitely not efficient, despite the EMH theory, which has been proven time and time again, so to assume that out of all the multitude of announcements and factors that resulted in the market share price pre conversion/exercising of shares being arrived at, already took into account the options being offloaded, would be way too far of a stretch for me.

You could recalculate your implied value based on a diluted equity base and revenue projections, but again this is a company which fundamentally many won't touch as there is no set in stone revenue. Alot of derisked revenue prospects as some believe, but this isn't some typical asx 200 business where all these constants are available and more easily calculated against a diluted equity base.