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$8.93 tpg telecom limited

Optus wants mkt share/price war, page-81

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crazypunter

5,760 Posts.

111

26/06/16

18:29

Post #: 18126763
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Originally posted by medici ↑

I agree that Teoh made a great deal, at least compared to the current price tag on TPG's share if one intends to buy.
Just love TPG's story so much: TPG gives you unlimited ADSL2+ with home phone line rental @ $69.99 a month! Yup!
This ad line just impressed me for such a long long time. Easy to remember everything as a customer would need to know!
2 qualitative things to share with you which seems little mentioned before elsewhere:

(1) Teoh is the best CEO among big telcos and he has the biggest support in the board. This means he has the best flexibility to execute things in time! 2 evidence to support this: first, he kept everything so low profile and even CFO wouldn't randomly comment and respond to public calls. It means Teoh has strict rules to keep all his men head down. Only himself can respond to some calls from newspaper. Second, Teoh manages the cost very tight. I remember in an article it said Teoh told the staff in iiNet he would end the "country club culture". Well, both Telstra and Singtel's Optus CEOs will not have this kind of absolute power and support to do the right things in their mind without compromise. I assume they will have to do plenty of calculation about risks to their own careers and positions before they propose their "new plans new strategies" to their boards and even if they are heros not thinking about risks to themselves, they still have to do lot of side works to get their bosses to approve the long term plans. As I see, Teoh has no such problems.

(2) All of these companies are selling commodities. When everything being equal, price is the only thing customers will consider. I know it is kind of obvious. But what is not that obvious is that rolling out NBN or FTTB or any other new technologies will just make everything very close to be equal!! I mean, new technologies will just make the speed and network quality less and less different. It was doing this kind of thing in the past 10 years and it will keep doing it in the next 10 years. So as I see, when it comes to price, who will be the best player in the field? TPG I think. It is the low cost player and it has a strict boss to keep the cost low in the future. With TPG smartly transfer its mobile division to Vodafone, it avoids to develop the expensive retail presence of its own. It simply knows how to focus! Very smart I have to say! Very make sense! So my estimate is that in the coming 5-10 years, Telstra and Optus will just keep losing some of their market shares to TPG gradually if they continue to play the same game, offer similar products like TPG. Things were evident in the past 10 years already when we saw TPG successfully acquired customers organically year by year. Its core secret is simply shocking low price in my mind and this secret will benefit itself in the future I estimate because bigger telcos are so slow and so reluctant to admit their pricing is their fatal weakness. One day, the bottom line will force them to realise this crisis but TPG will become a new generation Telco King in Australia.

I could be too optimistic but this is my observation in this wonderful.

Still, I am late for this party. The current price is too high to me with Brexit and China debt things around the world. Plan to get in @$8 or sth... You might get in early, good on you.

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so what you are basically saying is that this is as good as it gets for the TPG sp and it will eventually decline to it's actual worth of $8 .
that is when you will buy in because TPG will then be the new telco king anyway.

that means, you are saying that the holders here are 30% in overvalued territory.

so what is your reco- sell now and accumulate later on?

cheers crazypunter

TPM Price at posting: $11.40 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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